Regional budget: the silent erosion

What are provisional twelfths?

When a government is in caretaker mode, it cannot have a new budget approved by Parliament. The provisional twelfths mechanism applies: each month, the Region may spend a maximum of 1/12th of the last approved budget.

In practice, this means:

• No new expenditure beyond what was planned in the last budget (the 2024 budget, voted before the elections).
• No new programmes — any project that was not already budgeted is blocked.
• Inflation is not compensated — if prices rise, the real value of expenditure decreases automatically.

The concrete impact

Erosion through inflation

With cumulative inflation of approximately 6% between Q4 2023 budget design and early 2026 (based on Statbel indices), the 2026 provisional twelfths buy approximately 6% less than the original 2024 budget. Civil servants receive their indexed salary, but investments and subsidies remain at the 2024 nominal level.

Frozen investments

Any investment that required a new political decision is at a standstill:

• No new funding envelopes for Master Development Plans (PAD)
• No refinancing of management contracts that have expired
• No new calls for projects in most regional administrations

Regional debt sharply rising

The Court of Auditors issued an adverse opinion on the Region's 2024 accounts, citing "significant anomalies". The consolidated gross debt has tripled since 2016, rising from 4.6 to 15.65 billion EUR. Annual interest charges have increased 4.4-fold: from 91 million in 2016 to 399 million EUR in 2024, with a projected 548 million by 2029. The gap between the projected deficit (-1.080B) and the actual deficit (-1.515B) in 2024 was 434.8 million EUR.

Shutdown risk narrowly averted

At the end of 2025, Belfius -- the Region's main creditor -- had announced the end of its credit line on 1 January 2026. The contract was ultimately extended by one year (50 million EUR). Without this extension, the Region would no longer have been able to pay its civil servants and maintain basic services.

Subsidies and agreements

Multi-year agreements between the Region and subsidised organisations (associations, cultural institutions, etc.) that expire cannot be renewed by a caretaker government. Only existing commitments with a legal basis continue.

Sources and methodology

The budget figures come from official documents of the Brussels Parliament and reports by the Court of Audit. The estimate of the real loss due to inflation is calculated by BGM based on consumer price indices published by Statbel and the National Bank of Belgium. This estimate uses the simplifying assumption of a constant nominal budget, which underestimates the real impact (certain items such as salaries are indexed automatically, which correspondingly reduces the margins for other expenditure).